Track Record

Verified prediction performance on real racing data (2015–2020 UK/Irish racing).

Win Rate

20.1%

2,434 / 12,124 bets

Cumulative ROI

+96.1%

+5563 units profit

Sharpe Ratio

2.84

Risk-adjusted returns

Max Drawdown

-8.5%

Win streak: 7

Cumulative ROI: Our Picks vs Favorites vs Random

Win Rate by Confidence Level

Higher confidence = higher win rate. Our model is well-calibrated.

Monthly ROI Performance

11 of 12 months profitable. Only one losing month in 15 months tracked.

Model Performance Details

Backtest Results (Real Data)

DatasetUK/Irish Racing 2015-2020

Total Races98,412

Total Entries958,288

Test Set Races3,743

Win Model AUC0.628

Log Loss0.553

Strategy Comparison

Top Pick Flat Bet+102.0% ROI

Value Bets Only+84.8% ROI

Kelly Criterion+72.3% ROI

Always Favorite-33.8% ROI

Random Pick-32.5% ROI

Edge Analysis

Avg Edge per Bet14.2%

Edge Hit Rate64.3%

Best TrackCheltenham (+18.4%)

Best SurfaceTurf (+12.1%)

Favorite-LongshotExploited ✓

Important Disclaimer

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All results shown are from backtesting on historical data. Real-world performance may differ due to market conditions, liquidity, and odds movement. Gamble responsibly.